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Data Story — 04

One habit tripled the win rate: book the demo in week one.

I tore down a funnel of 4,200 opportunities to find where revenue leaks and where it compounds. Deal size didn't separate winners from losers. Timing did.

Role
Solo analysis
Stack
SQL · Snowflake · dbt
Source
CRM opportunity export
Sample
4,200 opportunities
01 Overview

A sales pipeline is just a funnel with feelings attached. Strip the feelings out and you can see exactly which stage is quietly bleeding revenue.

I took a full export of 4,200 opportunities and rebuilt the funnel stage by stage — entry, qualification, demo, proposal, close — then asked the only two questions that matter: where do deals die, and what do the survivors have in common?

02 The data

The raw CRM export was messy — duplicate opportunities, stages skipped, timestamps missing. I modelled it in Snowflake with dbt into one clean row per opportunity, with the full stage history and time-in-stage attached, then surfaced it in Looker.

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Opportunities reconstructed end to end.
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Win rate when a demo lands in week one.
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Median time deals stall in “negotiation.”
03 Approach

With a clean stage history, the funnel became a simple set of conversion ratios — and the time-in-stage data let me test behaviours, not just outcomes. The standout test: split every deal by how quickly its first demo happened, then compare win rates.

04 Key insights

Insight one: the funnel leaks hardest at the demo. Half of qualified deals never get one booked.

Pipeline funnel — 4,200 opportunities
count · conversion
Leads4,200 · 100%
Marketing qualified2,520 · 60%
Sales qualified1,260 · 30%
Demo booked760 · 18%
Proposal sent420 · 10%
Closed won210 · 5%
Read: the biggest single drop is qualified → demo. Fix that stage and everything downstream compounds.

“The deals that won didn't have bigger budgets. They had earlier demos.”

Insight two: speed compounds. The faster the first demo, the higher the close rate — and it isn't close.

Win rate by time to first demo
% of deals closed won
Within week 134%
Week 219%
Week 311%
Week 4+9%
Read: a demo in the first week closes at 3.1× the rate of one that slips past week three — holding deal size constant.
Top 2 reps
58% of revenue
Other 9 reps
42% of revenue
05 What's next
  1. 01Wire an alert that flags any qualified deal without a demo booked inside five days — close the leak in real time.
  2. 02Study the top two reps' sequences to see what's coachable versus what's just talent.
  3. 03Model expected revenue per stage so forecasting stops being a gut-feel spreadsheet.
06 Take a look